Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000ABNT20 KNHC 180502TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur, located along the Upper Texas coast.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Beven
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur (AT1/AL012026)
...ARTHUR DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 the center of Arthur was located near 29.7, -94.5 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 ...ARTHUR DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 94.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 94.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast Thursday through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of Arthur should move farther inland over southeastern Texas and western Louisiana tonight, then cross the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. While additional weakening is expected as the system moves inland, the remnants of Arthur will continue to produce widespread heavy rains across the southeastern United States during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for remnants of Arthur can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the remnants of Arthur, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with Arthur, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. WIND: Winds gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along the Louisiana coast tonight. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Upper Texas coast but will continue to subside overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next day or two. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and tomorrow into parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Beven
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 18 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180247 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026 0300 UTC THU JUN 18 2026 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 94.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 94.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 94.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR MAY EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY, AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 697 WTNT41 KNHC 180249 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Surface observations indicated that the center of Arthur re-formed near Galveston around 21-22Z in response to an offshore convective burst. Since that time, there has been no organized convection near the center, and the circulation has become elongated along the Upper Texas coast. Based on these developments, and the expectation that organized convection will not reform near the center, Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone and is being downgraded to a post-tropical low with 30 kt winds. While the motion is a bit uncertain due to the center reformation, it appears that the system is starting to move a bit faster toward the northeast with the initial motion estimated at 040/8 kt. A general northeastward motion is expected until the surface center dissipates tonight over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur should move east- northeastward across the southeastern United States and emerge into the Atlantic on Friday. A continued east-northeastward motion out to sea is expected thereafter. As mentioned, the surface center of Arthur is expected to dissipate later tonight. The global models suggest that the surface center could reform near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some intensification possible as the system moves out to sea. It is unclear at this time whether this re-development will be due to tropical cyclone processes or baroclinic process. However, marine gale warnings are being issued for portions of the western Atlantic in anticipation of this development. Even though Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will continue to be a major hazard for the next few days across the southeastern United States. There is also an increased tornado threat for portions of the southeastern U.S. through Thursday. That is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Rainfall forecasts for the remnants of Arthur in the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php . Marine forecasts, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered minor river flooding is expected, with the potential for isolated moderate to major river flooding. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat through the weekend. 2. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur along portions of the Louisiana coast tonight. 3. Coastal flooding along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should gradually subside later tonight and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 29.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 18 2026 000
FONT11 KNHC 180248
PWSAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
0300 UTC THU JUN 18 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:20:16 GMT
Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT
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