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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241148
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that a broad area of low 
pressure located just southwest of Grand Cayman Island is gradually 
becoming better organized, with a better defined wind circulation, 
increasing thunderstorm activity and falling surface pressures since 
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within 
the next day or so while the low drifts toward the north and 
northwest.  The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and 
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.  
Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Yucatan 
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.  A NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally 
heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, 
Jamaica and Cuba through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
    ...LARGE EPSILON EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 24 the center of Epsilon was located near 36.9, -62.0 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon

  • Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 22
    Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...LARGE EPSILON EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.9N 62.0W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 62.0 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today. Epsilon is then forecast to continue moving northeastward with quickly increasing forward speed by this evening, which will continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 22
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240836 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 390SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 22
    Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240842 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon's convective pattern has continued to devolve into more of a large comma-shaped pattern rather than the classical circular structure of a mature tropical cyclone. There is a ragged remnant eye, however, which has provided a good continuity feature to track. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/10 kt. Epsilon is now located north of the mid-oceanic subtropical ridge axis, so acceleration into the faster mid-latitude westerlies is expected to begin by this evening, if not sooner, and continue through the weekend. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario. The new NHC official track forecast is almost identical to the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. Epsilon will be moving off of a relatively warm Gulfstream eddy (26.5 deg C sea-surface temperature/SST) in the next 6 h or so, which should result in continued slow weakening through the weekend. By 36 h, SSTs are expected to drop sharply to less than 20 deg C, causing the complete erosion of any remaining inner-core convection and resultant transition to a large and powerful extratropical low. The post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds right up until the time that it merges with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 36.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 240837 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
    Hurricane Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 08:39:21 GMT

    Hurricane Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2020 09:24:47 GMT ]]>