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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


745 
ABNT20 KNHC 282316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical 
Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde islands. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of Eleven was located near 17.2, -35.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven

  • Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR LONG... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 35.6W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 35.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a general northwest to north-northwest motion is expected until the depression dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 35.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 35.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 36.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 38.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 39.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290232 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 There's been little change of note with the depression this evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of 25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt, but this may be generous. There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track forecast in that direction. Otherwise there's no change to any thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 18.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 FONT11 KNHC 290232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
    Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 02:33:11 GMT

    Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:30:52 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)
    ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 27.5, -81.4 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Ian

  • Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 711 WTNT34 KNHC 290259 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 81.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch for Lake Okeechobee is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Raton is discontinued. Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from Flamingo eastward to the Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and north is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida overnight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-10 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...3-5 ft * Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft * South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft * Florida Keys...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Severe and extensive wind damage is likely near the core of Ian. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward overnight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday through late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall amounts: * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local maxima up to 30 inches. * Coastal Georgia and Low Country of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of southern Mid-Atlantic. TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across parts of east-central and northeast Florida through Thursday morning. This threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290258 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA RATON IS DISCONTINUED. STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM FLAMINGO EASTWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER * BOCA RATON TO SEBASTIAN INLET * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY * FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 300SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N 80.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...330NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.3N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.0N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 81.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 26
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290259 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Ian remains inland over central Florida at this time. Although the eye is no longer evident on satellite or radar imagery, it continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern, and surface observations show hurricane-force winds near the system's core. Assuming a decay rate similar to that given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. Given the lack of pressure observations from surface stations, the central pressure is estimated using a blend of standard wind/pressure relationships. Steady weakening will occur while Ian continues to move over land. Although not explicitly shown by the official forecast, the cyclone could still be at hurricane strength when it reaches the central east coast of Florida or the southeast U.S. coast. Therefore, a hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for that area. The environment during the next 36 hours or so does not appear to be conducive for strengthening, with strong shear and dry air prevailing. However some intensification is possible due to a favorable trough interaction. The official intensity forecast is above the model guidance at this time. Ian continues to move north-northeastward, or about 030/7 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should move around a trough near the southeastern U.S. and west of a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is shifted slightly east of the previous one and is on top of the new multi-model consensus. Since the radar presentation of the center has degraded, and the center is no longer easily trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will no longer be issued. Key Messages: 1. Severe and life-threatening storm surge inundation of 8 to 10 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. 2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread across central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight through early Thursday. 3. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to record river flooding, will continue across portions of central Florida tonight with considerable flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina expected tomorrow through the end of the week. 4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 27.5N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 29.6N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 30/1200Z 31.3N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 33.1N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 35.0N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/0000Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 698 FONT14 KNHC 290259 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 37(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 22(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 27(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 37(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 4( 6) 32(38) 25(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 5( 8) 34(42) 21(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 23(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 2( 5) 19(24) 17(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 28(32) 16(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MAYPORT NS FL 34 8 37(45) 13(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 7 15(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GAINESVILLE FL 34 31 5(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) DAYTONA BEACH 34 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) DAYTONA BEACH 50 10 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ORLANDO FL 64 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 64 4(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) COCOA BEACH FL 64 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 66 4(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PATRICK AFB 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 41 2(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
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