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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


167 
ABNT20 KNHC 011725
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly 
formed Tropical Storm Bonnie, located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea.

Near the Southeastern US:
Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate 
that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of 
Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and 
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it 
drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the 
next day or so.  Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding 
across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through 
tonight and into Saturday.  See products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast 
office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Near the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located over the Windward Islands is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of 
this system is not expected to occur while it moves westward into 
unfavorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
For more information on the system near the southeastern U.S., see 
products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and 
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Bonnie (AT2/AL022022)
    ...BONNIE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.1, -81.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Bonnie

  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Public Advisory Number 16A
    Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 011746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 ...BONNIE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 81.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres Colombia * Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres Island this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 16
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022 000 WTNT22 KNHC 011454 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA * LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA * CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 81.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 81.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 81.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 16
    Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011455 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed this morning over the western Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection has persisted into the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 n mi east of the Nicaragua coast. The plane found flight-level winds of 44 kt in the northeast quadrant, and SFMR data indicated 33 kt surface winds, supporting an initial intensity of 35 kt. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled later today. Bonnie is moving just south of due west at 260/17 kt and has tracked slightly farther south than the prior forecast. The storm is expected to make landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. After traversing Central America, Bonnie is expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days. The track guidance is in good agreement during the forecast period, with the ECMWF still the northernmost solution and closest to land, while remaining offshore. The new forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast, partially based on the initial motion and position. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's progress during the next several days. Bonnie remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment and is forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours prior to landfall. The official intensity forecast at 12 hours is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After Bonnie emerges into the eastern Pacific, the intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and aligned with the consensus intensity guidance for the remainder of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 011454 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BLUEFIELDS 34 14 41(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAN ANDRES 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LIMON 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Graphics
    Tropical Storm Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Jul 2022 17:46:53 GMT

    Tropical Storm Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Jul 2022 15:22:47 GMT ]]>