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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


113 
ABNT20 KNHC 182346
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the Azores.

A large area of disturbed weather has developed in association with
a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system through
Friday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Over the
weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
    ...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 18 the center of Joyce was located near 30.9, -27.8 with movement SSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Joyce

  • Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 25
    Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 711 WTNT35 KNHC 182028 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 27.8W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually turn to the southwest and west through early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 25
    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 712 WTNT25 KNHC 182028 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 27.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 27.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 25
    Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 812 WTNT45 KNHC 182029 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 Deep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day or so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no longer having organized deep convection. With the decrease in overall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt. An environment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause Joyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday. This agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the timing of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or less). The initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south- southwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt). The depression is forecast to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF, is tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 30.9N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 699 FONT15 KNHC 182028 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
    Tropical Depression Joyce 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 20:49:41 GMT

    Tropical Depression Joyce 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 21:21:27 GMT ]]>