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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean a little less than one thousand miles
east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
    ...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.3, -49.7 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee

  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 27
    Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 49.7W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.7 West. Lee is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the southwest or west is expected by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 27
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242031 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 27
    Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242031 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that remains 80 kt. The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory. The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN multi-model scheme. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 242031 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Graphics
    Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 20:37:49 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 21:22:24 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
    ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 29.4, -73.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Maria

  • Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 35
    Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242054 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 73.0W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout northward to Duck. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday night or Tuesday. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 35
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 242053 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.0N 73.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.8N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 35
    Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 242057 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria's pressure has fallen a few millibars since this morning, but there has been little overall change in intensity. A blend of the flight-level and Stepped Frequency Radiometer Microwave Radiometer data yields an initial wind speed of around 90 kt. Maria will be traversing warm water and remain in a low shear environment during the next day or so, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Monday. After that time, Maria is forecast to move over cooler waters left over from Hurricane Jose. This is likely to result in gradual weakening, however Maria is forecast to maintain hurricane status through the entire forecast period. Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to the north of the system over the northeastern United States. After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge. The NHC track is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean. Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm- force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina in about 48 hours. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. 2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.4N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 30.3N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 33.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 35.0N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 35.8N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 242054 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) 1(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 6(32) X(32) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20(32) 6(38) X(38) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 21(35) 6(41) X(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 23(39) 7(46) X(46) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 23(44) 7(51) X(51) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) X(28) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 15(22) 25(47) 20(67) 5(72) X(72) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 5(27) X(27) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 16(29) 17(46) 5(51) X(51) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 6( 7) 11(18) 20(38) 18(56) 5(61) X(61) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 17(33) 17(50) 5(55) X(55) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 13(35) 4(39) X(39) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 12(30) 3(33) X(33) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 2(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
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